The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

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Bludogdem
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by Bludogdem »

Simple fact is that Covid is a much bigger danger to and kills old people.

People over the age of 65 represent 15% of the total u.s. population but were 75% of the fatalities.

Kids 0-18 represent 22% of the population and were .1% (1,000) fatalities.

The 18 to 29 set represents 16.4% of the population and were .7% (6091) fatalities.

Covid is not a statistically dangerous disease to the under 50 set.

Factor in comorbidity impact and it’s even less dangerous to the larger population.

That’s the basis we should work from to mitigate Covid.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
gounion
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by gounion »

JoeMemphis wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:09 pm Oooh. Look at GoU getting all pissed. And cursing. And you call me the child.
No, Joe, you're a LIAR.
I answered you question. What would I do if it was Ebola. We have protocols for Ebola. We know a fair amount about Ebola. I would start by following those protocols which involve isolation of the infected individual.

But Covid isn’t Ebola is it? We pretty much knew that early on. So how you deal with the one isn’t necessarily how you deal with the other.
No, you DIDN'T answer my question. Ebola is a disease that is highly contagious, like COVID, but kills almost everyone who gets it. But the good thing is, as soon as you get it, you get deathly sick, so it's easy to keep it from spreading.

But what if a variant came up, that everyone that catches it will be highly contagious for weeks before they have any symptoms or it can be detected? But once you catch it, you WILL die.

That's not included in current Ebola protocols.

So, Joe, what would YOU do if you were in charge? Are you realizing that you have to run away from a question from ME? That's just hilarious!
gounion
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by gounion »

gounion wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:16 pm No, Joe, you're a LIAR.
No, you DIDN'T answer my question. Ebola is a disease that is highly contagious, like COVID, but kills almost everyone who gets it. But the good thing is, as soon as you get it, you get deathly sick, so it's easy to keep it from spreading.

But what if a variant came up, that everyone that catches it will be highly contagious for weeks before they have any symptoms or it can be detected? But once you catch it, you WILL die.

That's not included in current Ebola protocols.

So, Joe, what would YOU do if you were in charge? Are you realizing that you have to run away from a question from ME? That's just hilarious!
Yet another "who gives a fuck about a million people?" guy. You're sure a gem, Green Grass.
Bludogdem
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by Bludogdem »

JoeMemphis wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:03 pm Covid isn’t the flu as has been pointed out on this board many times. Ebola isn’t Covid. I used the raw data prevaccine. The numbers are there. They show what they show. It’s simple math.

One would think of red states sucked as bad as you say that would obviously show in the numbers. It didn’t. Your study ignored the initial surges in the north. You said that yourself. So obviously you knew the numbers were skewed otherwise why mention it.

I’m not a flu expert. I take it you are not a flu expert either. What we have are numbers on Covid by state prevaccine and they do not support your assertion. Not in my view. But you are welcome to your own opinion. You have a right to be wrong as well.
There’s a graph in here that shows early(prevaccine) numbers support your claim.

But the red state/blue state comparisons are simply stupid. It’s an age dangerous virus and should be managed as such.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... two-years/
gounion
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by gounion »

Bludogdem wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:24 pm There’s a graph in here that shows early(prevaccine) numbers support your claim.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... two-years/
No, they didn't. When I moved to Tennessee in the months pre-vaccine, it was EVERYWHERE, and worst in the counties that were low-population, because they didn't do a damned thing.

The Dem areas were where it started, and the population was far more crowded.

I remember when Joe lied and tried to say that the Mississippi county where his lake house was completely COVID free, with no cases or deaths. He said they build a whole wing on the hospital for COVID which was unused.

Of course, five minutes on Google proved he was lying, and they DID have case AND deaths, so the hospital WAS getting some cases.

As Ron Ziegler (I'm sure you knew him personally, after all, you were quite the bigshot in politics back then, weren't you?) would say, his statement was "no longer operative".
JoeMemphis

Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by JoeMemphis »

gounion wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:34 pm No, they didn't. When I moved to Tennessee in the months pre-vaccine, it was EVERYWHERE, and worst in the counties that were low-population, because they didn't do a damned thing.

The Dem areas were where it started, and the population was far more crowded.

I remember when Joe lied and tried to say that the Mississippi county where his lake house was completely COVID free, with no cases or deaths. He said they build a whole wing on the hospital for COVID which was unused.

Of course, five minutes on Google proved he was lying, and they DID have case AND deaths, so the hospital WAS getting some cases.

As Ron Ziegler (I'm sure you knew him personally, after all, you were quite the bigshot in politics back then, weren't you?) would say, his statement was "no longer operative".
Sounds to me like GoU sees himself as kind of a big shot. Problem is that most of not all of what he says he makes up. That’s been his MO since I’ve known him. When you do it to him, he gets all pissed.

So anyone who disagrees with GoU gets called a litany of insults because he’s got nothing better. It’s either that or you have to listen to him talk about how great and tough he is and how lucky we have him out there making the world a better place.

It’s a snoozer but I’d recommend it if you have trouble sleeping. It reads like fantasy. That’s cause it is.
gounion
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by gounion »

JoeMemphis wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:47 pm Sounds to me like GoU sees himself as kind of a big shot. Problem is that most of not all of what he says he makes up. That’s been his MO since I’ve known him. When you do it to him, he gets all pissed.

So anyone who disagrees with GoU gets called a litany of insults because he’s got nothing better. It’s either that or you have to listen to him talk about how great and tough he is and how lucky we have him out there making the world a better place.

It’s a snoozer but I’d recommend it if you have trouble sleeping. It reads like fantasy. That’s cause it is.
No, YOU'RE the admitted liar, not me. I've never been caught in a lie like you have. Deal with it.

And you're STILL too gutless to answer my question on an Ebola scenario.
JoeMemphis

Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by JoeMemphis »

gounion wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:49 pm No, YOU'RE the admitted liar, not me. I've never been caught in a lie like you have. Deal with it.

And you're STILL too gutless to answer my question on an Ebola scenario.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Bludogdem
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by Bludogdem »

gounion wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 9:34 pm No, they didn't. When I moved to Tennessee in the months pre-vaccine, it was EVERYWHERE, and worst in the counties that were low-population, because they didn't do a damned thing.

The Dem areas were where it started, and the population was far more crowded.

I remember when Joe lied and tried to say that the Mississippi county where his lake house was completely COVID free, with no cases or deaths. He said they build a whole wing on the hospital for COVID which was unused.

Of course, five minutes on Google proved he was lying, and they DID have case AND deaths, so the hospital WAS getting some cases.

As Ron Ziegler (I'm sure you knew him personally, after all, you were quite the bigshot in politics back then, weren't you?) would say, his statement was "no longer operative".
Well, if you’re too stupid to understand the graph here is the text printed above the blue spike.
“ In spring 2020, deaths were most heavily
concentrated in counties that would be most
supportive of Biden in the 2020 election”

Spring 2020 is pre vaccine. So the claim is valid.
bradman
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by bradman »

JoeMemphis wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 12:45 pm I have a little brother just like that myself. Maybe we are related somehow.
We are all related Joe.

i just gotta figure out a way to calm my little sisters fears.

Apparently, she doesn't want me to write him off quite yet.

Like it or not, she has a point.
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ProfX
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ProfX »

Summer and Fall 2020 were also pre-vaccine.

Quoting Pew Research report linked above:

In the spring of 2020, the areas recording the greatest numbers of deaths were much more likely to vote Democratic than Republican. But by the third wave of the pandemic, which began in fall 2020, the pattern had reversed: Counties that voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden were suffering substantially more deaths from the coronavirus pandemic than those that voted for Biden over Trump. This reversal is likely a result of several factors including differences in mitigation efforts and vaccine uptake, demographic differences, and other differences that are correlated with partisanship at the county level.

Reproducing graph - pretty much the same as Axios'

Image

This one seems to have its legend intact, good. Note what it says happens in July 2020. Observe with your own eyes the red lines overtake the blue lines between July and December 2020. None of that has to do with the vaccine, which really hasn't rolled out yet. Seeing this phenomenon exist is not cherry-picking.

Now, onto imperious declarations about public health:

It may be most deadly to the elderly, but there are reasons you want to control infections of younger people. a. they know and come into contact with old people. It is not possible to put old people into hermetically sealed tubes for 2 years. Not all live in tightly controllable senior facilities. b. there's long COVID and evidence of some long-term organ damage to the survivors. c. remember all that "flattening the curve" stuff? If you don't control it overtaking hospital resources and burning out personnel, hospitals will be left unable to treat other medical conditions, and people will die more of lots of stuff. d. it mutates in human hosts of all ages and could create more dangerous strains. Oh and e. some of those comorbidities are widespread in the general population, and some are unknown to the people who have them.

In short, in a pandemic crisis, including this one, the goal is to reduce infections of all people. Full stop. Period. End of report.

Let me know when you can find a public health professional (not an economist or a radiologist) who said differently. We call this "consensus" of people in the field. When in a public health crisis, I do listen to public health experts. Yep, guilty as charged.
Last edited by ProfX on Sun May 15, 2022 6:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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gounion
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by gounion »

Bludogdem wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 10:42 pm Well, if you’re too stupid to understand the graph here is the text printed above the blue spike.
“ In spring 2020, deaths were most heavily
concentrated in counties that would be most
supportive of Biden in the 2020 election”

Spring 2020 is pre vaccine. So the claim is valid.
Nope, you're too stupid to realize that the virus came in through our main transportation hubs - which were on the coasts - New York, California, DC - which is where I was. I moved to Tennessee in Dec 2020. That's when it was worst in rural counties in the south. Now why would that be?

Because those folks, like Joe, thought it was fake, and they wouldn't wear masks.
gounion
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by gounion »

JoeMemphis wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 10:09 pm :lol: :lol: :lol:
We know why you won't answer - because your answer is to do nothing, and keep all business open and everything as usual. You'd just be putting every dime you have into hospital stocks. Like most conservatives, you'd just figure out how you could make the most money. Until, of course, you caught it and died yourself.

Because you're stupid. Ideology over reality.
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ZoWie
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ZoWie »

Too many variables. The data can be massaged to tell anyone anything.

Of course covid started on the coasts and in the big cities in the US. That's where people who had it entered the country. One outbreak in Northern CA came from a cruise ship. NYC got blasted because so many people come in there. LA got hit to the point where it evolved its own, fortunately short lived, variant.

Also remember that at the beginning there were no vaccines, no masks available to the public, and the only precaution that stood a chance of working was staying home. That doesn't work in a place like New York where home is as crowded as job sites, so it was hammered.

We're trying to prevent anything like that first wave happening again, but the rear guard fanatics keep screwing us up by insisting they'll act any way they damn well please. And if we confront them, they get into the biggest vehicles they can find and stop commerce, which is what they didn't like about making people stay home.

And, if massage data you must, note where the most persistent and deadliest spread is now. It practically follows the election maps. Seems like the conclusion would more logically now relate to ignorance.
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marindem01
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by marindem01 »

Since using a mask, I've had a cold or the flu. Nor have I contracted COVID...masks work.

Both my Allergist and Primary Care Doc tell me to use a mask.....masks work.

The only people I know that have contracted COVID are the people who do not use masks.....masks work.

If I enter a cafe, bank, theater or store and the staff are NOT wearing masks I leave.....masks work.

For the record I live with possible symptoms of COVID.

1. Coughing - I have Asthma.

2. Dizziness - I have Vertigo.

3. Lack of or loss of the sense of smell - I have had TWO operations for Sinus Polyps.

Masks work.
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ProfX
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ProfX »

Dunno, I think data can be interpreted correctly. Only postmodernists make claims like "well you can interpret it however you feel like". ;)

I also believe in causality. :D

So looking at the PewResearch graph ...

So, yes, there is an initial huge spike in deaths in the blue states/areas, where the virus hit first, up to about May-June 2020, awareness and preparedness were the least, the least about the virus was known, and some bad mistakes were made - yeah - like sending infected seniors back to senior living facilities. Really bad. They had not had the chance to put mitigation measures in place.

Then there is a sudden drop in deaths in those states, once mitigation efforts begin to be put in place. Yes, early on, the CDC was worried about availability of masks for first responders and initially wasn't advising it. However, in July of 2020, everything starts to flip, and the red/Trump areas get hit worse. That isn't the effect of the vaccine. It won't be available until Jan of 2021. That is failure to mitigate.

That strikes me as the correct interpretation. :geek:

Unfortunately, and sadly, the real death gap between red and blue states starts to grow much higher when Delta hits, but that's a later story, mostly about the failure to vaccinate.
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ZoWie
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ZoWie »

ProfX wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 11:37 am Dunno, I think data can be interpreted correctly. Only postmodernists make claims like "well you can interpret it however you feel like". ;)

I also believe in causality. :D

So looking at the PewResearch graph ...

So, yes, there is an initial huge spike in deaths in the blue states/areas, where the virus hit first, up to about May-June 2020, awareness and preparedness were the least, the least about the virus was known, and some bad mistakes were made - yeah - like sending infected seniors back to senior living facilities. Really bad. They had not had the chance to put mitigation measures in place.

Then there is a sudden drop in deaths in those states, once mitigation efforts begin to be put in place. Yes, early on, the CDC was worried about availability of masks for first responders and initially wasn't advising it. However, in July of 2020, everything starts to flip, and the red/Trump areas get hit worse. That isn't the effect of the vaccine. It won't be available until Jan of 2021. That is failure to mitigate.

That strikes me as the correct interpretation. :geek:

Unfortunately, and sadly, the real death gap between red and blue states starts to grow much higher when Delta hits, but that's a later story, mostly about the failure to vaccinate.
1. LOL

2. Off the record, I agree with your analysis. I've seen that particular interpretation of the data around, and the correlation between red/blue and covid deaths seems to be outside the margin of error. I lack the expertise to say for sure, though.

3. What little anecdotal evidence that I have does strongly suggest that masks work. Note that Omicron hit around Thanksgiving and for the most part people did mask up, and while there was still a spike it was a brief one likely caused by heavy travel around the holidays. The impression that I got from boards like this one and from family, etc, was that people were fed up and they were going to travel for the holidays and that's all there was to it. Even so, I was amazed by how fast the case numbers went down, and if Omicron wasn't mutating weekly maybe they'd have stayed down. This plus the total lack of a flu epidemic despite the vaccine having the "wrong" strains and the dire predictions of same seems to indeed reinforce the idea that masking made a difference there too. But you'll never convince the anti-maskers. Their minds are made up.
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ProfX
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ProfX »

ZoWie wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 12:39 pm I lack the expertise to say for sure, though.
I don't work in public health either -- I just trust the people who do. :D And they agree.

Like I said, find me one article by a public health expert who says masking provided no benefit. I have three donuts on you can't find one. Most of the articles claiming otherwise have been by economists - or radiologists.
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ZoWie
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ZoWie »

KNX radio news asked a learned government public health expert if anyone on her flight was wearing a mask. She said that she knows that one did, because she kept hers on the whole time.

The people who would know say they work. The people who say they don't work typically give reasons like it violates their freedom, as if long covid for the rest of your life and major organ damage wouldn't do something similar only worse. Maybe that's fine, for them. It's fine to discount the risk until it is shown to hurt other people, then it isn't fine at all. If they are overruled they act like children and start fights in stores or block highways. Not exactly a cogent argument for their position.

The exact same thing is documented in 1918, when there was major agitation around the position that masks were a Bolshevik plot to ruin our breathing and make us easier to conquer.
Last edited by ZoWie on Mon May 16, 2022 1:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Number6
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by Number6 »

marindem01 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:58 am Since using a mask, I've had a cold or the flu. Nor have I contracted COVID...masks work.

Both my Allergist and Primary Care Doc tell me to use a mask.....masks work.

The only people I know that have contracted COVID are the people who do not use masks.....masks work.

If I enter a cafe, bank, theater or store and the staff are NOT wearing masks I leave.....masks work.

For the record I live with possible symptoms of COVID.

1. Coughing - I have Asthma.

2. Dizziness - I have Vertigo.

3. Lack of or loss of the sense of smell - I have had TWO operations for Sinus Polyps.

Masks work.
Since the masks mandates have come off, the only thing I've had was a cold that lasted about three days. I get my flu shot every year and I haven't had the flu for decades. Masks do work because if they didn't healthcare workers would be sicker more often than other workers and the rate of hospital nosocomial infections in patients would be through the roof.
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ZoWie
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ZoWie »

This year the flu shot had the wrong strains, and a major epidemic was predicted. It never happened. Not even close. The absence of flu was striking, and can only be explained by either pure chance or (more likely) the widespread use of masks when Omicron hit big.

All the evidence supports the idea that masks, especially the real N95s and KN95s that are readily available now, do work to reduce spread.
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by Number6 »

ZoWie wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 1:45 pm This year the flu shot had the wrong strains, and a major epidemic was predicted. It never happened. Not even close. The absence of flu was striking, and can only be explained by either pure chance or (more likely) the widespread use of masks when Omicron hit big.
I suspect it was a combination of both. I'd also include with with businesses shut down and social distancing help in a mild flu season.
All the evidence supports the idea that masks, especially the real N95s and KN95s that are readily available now, do work to reduce spread.
N95s and KN95s are the best but three-layered cloth masks also provided protection and reduce COVID-19 infection.
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by ZoWie »

Cloth masks with a polypropylene layer do a good job, with the main problem being that they don't seal well around the nose. There's a lesser problem with them getting less of the particulates, though masks with a static charged polypropylene layer can do pretty well. Fauci at one time recommended that if you didn't want to wear an N95 or couldn't get them, a cloth mask worn over one of these polypropylene masks would work better for Omicron than no mask at all.

Seems however that the real anti-maskers reject the idea of any covering at all, 1/3 because of possible inconvenience, and 2/3 because it's the government who is telling them to do it.
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by gounion »

ZoWie wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:57 pm Cloth masks with a polypropylene layer do a good job, with the main problem being that they don't seal well around the nose. There's a lesser problem with them getting less of the particulates, though masks with a static charged polypropylene layer can do pretty well. Fauci at one time recommended that if you didn't want to wear an N95 or couldn't get them, a cloth mask worn over one of these polypropylene masks would work better for Omicron than no mask at all.

Seems however that the real anti-maskers reject the idea of any covering at all, 1/3 because of possible inconvenience, and 2/3 because it's the government who is telling them to do it.
...and 3/3 because they don't believe in the germ theory.
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Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic Thread

Post by Libertas »

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/15 ... OkhLirVWfg

Image


Any anti vax folks here? I know there are anti mask folks.
I sigh in your general direction.
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