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PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:44 pm 
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Climate change is likely going to kill millions, displace billions and all within 75 years.

I wish I could live long enough to see it.

LOL.


Love you Libertas.


Two totally different things...solar flares and global climate change...unless of course you wish to pursue the ridiculous notion that the sun is the primary cause of global climate change.


I'll let Svante take it from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Ar ... use_effect


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:24 pm 
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LOL.


Love you Libertas.


Two totally different things...solar flares and global climate change...unless of course you wish to pursue the ridiculous notion that the sun is the primary cause of global climate change.


I'll let Svante take it from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Ar ... use_effect

I know they are entirely different things, I was going along the line of shit that can harm us.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:22 pm 
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One of the theories advanced to debunk human climate change is that the series of extreme solar peaks culminating in 1958 injected more energy than normal into the atmosphere, heating it up.

The only thing wrong with this plausible sounding theory is that it doesn't fit the data. By now the atmosphere would likely have begun to cool, or at least level off. It hasn't done either. It continues to heat, year after year.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:20 pm 
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Earth just dodged a bullet. The sun had one active region, but it rotated off the disk, making us spotnil. On the other side of the sun, however, it put out a large flare (possibly X class) and a gigantic CME that would have definitely have been noticed. Instead, it all heads toward Mars. I don't think Mars has a magnetic field, and it might make for some interesting data when it gets there.

One of our sun observing spacecraft took a direct hit, but it was hardened for that. Also the kind of arcing you see with satellites in Earth orbit doesn't happen as much in deep space.

It is worth noting, however, that a much smaller event caused a really first class aurora in the northern half of the US last week. I don't remember if the same active region caused it, but it was definitely CME from a flare, not enhanced solar wind from a coronal hole. We have one of THOSE this week.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:59 pm 
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We're getting nearer the equinox, and that's aurora season.

Now, if you saw the eclipse, you noticed that the sun was rather spotty for this point in the cycle. It has gotten spottier since. One group is in a VERY geoeffective position and last night it blew out a decent M5.5 flare and full-halo CME.

Protons took a really dramatic jump (currently S1 radiation storm, a mild event), and the ionosphere is very disturbed. The slower CME event should get here tomorrow-ish and liven things up quite a bit. Given the time of year, this could get good. They're thinking G2 good. Not time for the foil hat, but interesting.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:35 pm 
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I don't think Mars has a magnetic field, and it might make for some interesting data when it gets there.


http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-la ... /1710.html

Why is only half of Mars magnetized?

I'm working my way through a horrendously high pile of magazines that I haven't had time to read, and came across an article in the September 26 issue of Science that is really cool: it neatly explains why only the southern half of Mars is strongly magnetized.

[snip][end]


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:40 pm 
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Gotta read that, thanks.

I think we've just had another M class flare. Something's taken out HF propagation quite nicely. I looked up the solar flux and it was at a very impressive 140 (corrected, I think, since one raw reading last night LA time was more like 185). It was 95 a couple of days ago. That's a real nice boink at any point in the cycle.

Now WWV is audible again, but it's Doppler shifted. This is getting wild and woolly. Something really did it to the ionosphere.

Ahhh yes, here we go, in the x-ray chart. Big boink in the x-ray about 45 minutes ago. Well, that'll do it. Makes the ionosphere nice and opaque to RF.

Foil hats are still not required.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:03 pm 
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See, we really can have solar flares in minimum periods.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:11 pm 
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KABLAMMO!

The big sunspot R2673 (many times the size of Earth) did an X9.3 flare around 1200 UT this morning (USA time). Folks, that's the real stuff. Biggest of this solar cycle by a mile. Not as big as the X15 that blew out the power in Quebec, but up there. The data talks:

Image

Note an increasing sequence of flares, a good cinematic Hitchcock style pause, an X1 or thereabouts to get the audience back in it, and finally kaflooey. These are big explosions, folks. Were the earth anywhere around there, it would be toast. 93 million miles changes things.

Time of day being what it is, the ionosphere got nuked in Europe instead of here and it's still pretty opaque there (R4, I think, 1 dB absorption way way into VHF). The X-ray is decaying nicely. I haven't looked at the protons. I know of no surface proton event. (Ground currents, when things get very interesting indeed. THAT is when it's foil hat time. THIS is not.)

Aurora fans... I know its a bit early in the season and the moon is out, but this one might be good. The phasing of CMEs will be interesting. Most likely not Carrington Event interesting, but interesting. Stay tuned, if your radio works.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:20 pm 
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KABLAMMO!

The big sunspot R2673 (many times the size of Earth) did an X9.3 flare around 1200 UT this morning (USA time). Folks, that's the real stuff. Biggest of this solar cycle by a mile. Not as big as the X15 that blew out the power in Quebec, but up there. The data talks:

Image

Note an increasing sequence of flares, a good cinematic Hitchcock style pause, an X1 or thereabouts to get the audience back in it, and finally kaflooey. These are big explosions, folks. Were the earth anywhere around there, it would be toast. 93 million miles changes things.

Time of day being what it is, the ionosphere got nuked in Europe instead of here and it's still pretty opaque there (R4, I think, 1 dB absorption way way into VHF). The X-ray is decaying nicely. I haven't looked at the protons. I know of no surface proton event. (Ground currents, when things get very interesting indeed. THAT is when it's foil hat time. THIS is not.)

Aurora fans... I know its a bit early in the season and the moon is out, but this one might be good. The phasing of CMEs will be interesting. Most likely not Carrington Event interesting, but interesting. Stay tuned, if your radio works.


yea supposed to be good tonight find a dark place

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:48 pm 
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The CME from Monday's event kind of fizzled. It got the Kp index up around the storm threshold but never exceeded it. Don't know about high latitude K indices. Their mileage may vary.

We're having a dandy polar cap absorption event, but that's another movie.

CME from the big flare may or may not mostly miss Earth. It takes a couple of days to find out, when the pokey less energetic massive particles get here. They expect a G3 level impact, which would certainly do it for aurora in Michigan, weather permitting. There's always this waiting thing.

We had aurora in L.A. once when the Boulder K index got to 9, high as it can go. Thing is, down here it just turns the sky red. Mostly you hear it on various radio frequencies when some very odd things happen that you can't get any other way. For example, the US standard time/frequency station, which uses atomic clocks to tune the transmitters, starts audibly changing frequency. Good shit like that. Oooooooooeeeeeeeeeeoooooooooo.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:10 pm 
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I wish I had any idea what this is about:

Image

I know what the chart means. It's the magnetic field strength in space at two GOES satellites. The G stands for Geostationary. They orbit, I believe, in the Clarke Belt. That far out, they'd be in good spots to pick up changes in the Earth's magnetosphere caused by solar events.

And so we're going along with the usual diurnal variation until about 2030 UTC yesterday (1:30 - 4:30 PM US time). Things get kind of vertical. I believe the scientific term for this is, "WTF?"

It's a space weather boink in the Earth's magnetosphere, sudden storm commencement or whatever, where the blue and red traces diverge. Here's the problem: they don't usually go off the chart. This is the space weather version of a hurricane. And nothing like this happened at the surface.

?????????????????????????????????

My guess, which has to remain a guess, is that there was a bad day for comm satellites. Don't abandon HF quite yet.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:28 pm 
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I wish I had any idea what this is about:

Image


Looks like the proton flux and speed dramatically increased (step function-like) at about the same time (roughly 20:00:00 UTC on September 6).

http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:40 pm 
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Ahhh, so the CME had an effect in space, but didn't really affect the surface. The timing is right.

No such problem tonight. Kp=8. Classic sudden commencement. One second, la dee dah smell the flowers. Couple seconds later, call the grad students, get them back taking data.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are in G4 storming. Power companies, pipelines, those kind of people..... gonna have a busy night. Aurora fans... this could be your night too.

Lucky the first CME didn't phase... we could have been looking at a Carrington Event. Now, no way. Don't believe everything they say on twitter. It didn't cause the hurricanes either. The water was abnormally warm before this sunspot group existed.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:25 pm 
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One of our sun observing spacecraft took a direct hit, but it was hardened for that. Also the kind of arcing you see with satellites in Earth orbit doesn't happen as much in deep space.


The light show (arcing) is not really all that big a deal on its own.


Even in deep space (i.e. relatively low density of matter), the mere presence of the satellite means that there will be undesirable electric and magnetic effects on its components unless considerable care is taken to nullify them.


A key concept in dealing with such issues is that of floating voltage.


In order to help protect the electronics on such satellites, they are essentially buried inside a Faraday Cage.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:45 pm 
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Yeah, I know a bit about floating above ground from the radio thing, where sometimes you want to do that, and sometimes you're in trouble if you do.

Geosynchronous birds are in a pretty hostile environment. The biggest geoeffective flare I can remember is an X15, and that killed one of the early GOES satellites dead. I don't know what part of the EM energy or the coronal mass did the nasty deed, but something absolutely zapped it. I think that was a learning experience for designers.

I can see where a Faraday shield for critical circuits would be a very, very good idea.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:01 pm 
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OMG, the active region had rotated halfway off the disk and it still did one of the biggest numbers on "space weather" that I've ever seen. What we have here is an X8.2 flare with unusually energetic protons causing snow storms on the satellites' optical sensors. Also the X-ray took forever to decay, keeping HF propagation impossible for several hours instead of the usual 45-60 minutes. Yes, the biggest damn hurricanes and the biggest damn flare sequence in quite some time coincided... and for no reason. Really. Nothing to do with each other. The hurricanes had spun up before all this started, and they were running on unusually warm water, so there.

CME from the latest flare is off to the west, but it's so big that we get a piece anyway. Shouldn't be any big thang, really.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:50 pm 
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Well. Another early CME arrival. It seems to have come and gone. Aurora fans got theirs. Now, we're back to low solar activity and lots of coronal holes. Those cause aurora too, fans, by opening up a path for solar wind.

The recent surface proton event came closer to foil hat status than anything in quite some time, but still no cigar. The grand daddy ground-level event was in 1956. It was magnitudes bigger. Civilization didn't even notice. Scientist types did. Here's a paper that has all that stuff, with equations and everything.1

An interesting observation creeps out. OK, not really THAT interesting compared to catastrophic hurricanes and whether the Dodgers can stop playing like shit, but interesting. The position at the sun's limb (about to rotate out of view) has some special characteristics that make this kind of thing more geoeffective. All I know is that the snow storms on the various solar observing satellites did look a lot bigger than usual.

Now we know why.

---

1. A. Belov, et al, Annals of Geophysics, 2005
https://www.ann-geophys.net/23/2281/200 ... 1-2005.pdf

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